تجزیه‌و‌تحلیل و مدل‌سازی انرژی و هزینه تولید یونجه با بهره‌گیری از سامانه استنتاج فازی - عصبی تطبیقی در شهرستان بوکان

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

انرژی مؤلفه­ای اساسی در روند توسعه اقتصادی است و استفاده بهینه از آن یکی از الزامات اصلی کشاورزی پایدار است. در این مطالعه به بررسی الگوی مصرف انرژی در جریان تولید یونجه، تجزیه‌و‌تحلیل اقتصادی و مدل­سازی انرژی و هزینه تولید یونجه در شهرستان بوکان پرداخته شد. داده­ها از طریق مصاحبه و پر کردن پرسشنامه­های تخصصی جمع­آوری شد. نتایج نشان داد که کل انرژی مصرفی و تولیدی به‌ترتیب برابر 185658 و 6/232567 مگاژول‌در‌هکتار بود. الکتریسیته با سهم 75 درصدی از کل انرژی­های ورودی پرمصرف­ترین نهاده بود. شاخص­های کارایی انرژی، بهره­وری انرژی، نسبت فایده به هزینه و بهره­وری اقتصادی به‌ترتیب  23/1، (kg/Mj) 08/0، 08/2 و (rial/kg) 000194/0 به دست آمد. کل هزینه­های تولید 50065000 ریال‌در‌هکتار محاسبه شد که بیشترین هزینه ها مربوط به نیروی کارگری و عملیات ماشینی به‌ترتیب  با سهم %5/66 و %7/9 از کل هزینه‌های تولید بود. مقایسه نتایج مدل‌سازی با دو روش k-fold و C-means نشان داد که روش C-means قادر است با دقت بالاتری مقادیر شاخص‌های بهره‌وری انرژی و هزینه تولید یونجه را پیش‌بینی کند. نتایج نشان داد که بهره­وری انرژی و هزینه تولید به وسیله نهاده­های بذر، آب آبیاری، الکتریسیته، کودهای شیمیایی و حیوانی، نیروی کارگری، سموم شیمیایی، سوخت دیزل و ماشین‌ها و روش استنتاج فازی-عصبی تطبیقی با دقت بالایی قابل پیش­بینی می­باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis and modeling of energy and the production cost of alfalfa using multi-layer adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system in Bukan township

نویسندگان [English]

  • omid ghaderpour
  • shahin rafiee
  • mohammad sharifi
tehran university
چکیده [English]

This study examines the pattern of energy consumption in the production of alfalfa, economic analysis and modeling of energy and the production cost of alfalfa in the Bukan township. Data were collected through interviews and filling specialized questionnaires. The results showed that the consumption and production total energy were 212428 and 232567 respectively. Electricity with a share of 68 percent of the input total energy was the most consumed inputs. Indicators of energy efficiency, energy efficiency, energy intensity, net energy, net income, the ratio of benefit to cost and economic efficiency were 1.09, 14.43 Mj/kg, 0.07 kg/Mj, 20139.6 Mj, 1527.14 $/ha, 2.06 and 10.17 kg/$ respectively. Values of R, RMSE and RMSE for the final ANFIS in modeling of energy efficiency were 0.97, 0.033 and 0.2, respectively and for the final ANFIS in modeling of production cost, 0.98, 0.011 and 0.1, respectively. R2 value between actual and predicted values of Production costs and energy productivity was 0.94 and 0.97 respectively

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Bukan city
  • Energy
  • Energy Efficiency
  • modeling
  • ANFIS
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