مقایسه روش‌های رگرسیون لجستیک پروبیت و تحلیل ممیزی جهت شناسایی نواحی مساعد محیطی برای توسعه کشت گردو (مطالعه موردی شهرستان بافت)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه آب و هواشناسی، دانشکده جغرافیا و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری

2 استادیار، گروه علوم و مهندسی محیط زیست، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری

3 گروه مهندسی کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد سبزوار

4 سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، دانشگاه تکنولوژی مالزی، اسکودای

5 گروه آب و هواشناسی و ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری

چکیده

این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی مناطق مشابه با باغ های موجود گردو ازنظر عوامل شکل فیزیکی سطح زمین و اقلیمی به‌منظور تعیین نواحی مناسب و توسعه درختکاری گردو با استفاده از دو روش رگرسیون لجستیک و تحلیل ممیزی انجام شد. بدین منظور با توجه به شرایط محیطی مؤثر بر درختان گردو، داده‌های میانگین دمای سالانه، بارش سالانه، بارش در خشک‌ترین ماه، بارش در مرطوب‌ترین ماه، ارتفاع، شیب و جهت شیب توپوگرافی استفاده گردید. نتایج داده‌های اعتبار سنجی نشان داد که روش تحلیل ممیزی با 86 درصد از دقت بیشتری نسبت به رگرسیون لجستیک پروبیت با 75 درصد جهت توضیح درست مناطق مساعد جهت گسترش درختکاری گردو برخوردار است. مقدار شاخص لامبدای در روش تحلیل ممیزی نشان داد که بارش در خشک‌ترین ماه با 99/0بیشترین تأثیر را بر تابع تشخیص نواحی مساعد داشته‌اند. نواحی مناسب جهت توسعه کاشت درخت گردو در مناطق مرکزی، شمالی و شمال غربی شهرستان بافت است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparison of Probit Logistic Regression and Discriminant Analysis Methods for Identification of Suitable Areas for Walnut Planting (Case Study: Baft District)

نویسندگان [English]

  • hamed adab 1
  • Azadeh Atabati 2
  • Mohammad Armin 3
  • Hasan Zabihi 4
  • Nilufar Dehqani 5
1 Department of Climatology and Geomorphology, Hakim Sabzevari University
2 Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hakim Sabzevari University
3 Department of Agronomy, Sabzevar Branch, Islamic Azad University
4 Department of Geoinformation, Faculty of Geoinformation and Real Estate, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Skudai
5 Department of Climatology and Geomorphology, Hakim Sabzevari University
چکیده [English]

The aim of this study was to identify similar areas of physiography and climatic potential of walnut in Baft city. Logistic regression and discriminant analysis were used for the purpose of classifying of study area using a set of predictor variables to find the suitable areas to grow walnut. For this purpose, environmental conditions affecting walnut trees used included Annual Mean Temperature, Annual Precipitation, Precipitation of Driest Month, Precipitation of Wettest Month, Elevation, Slope Gradient and Aspect. 70% of the data, as training data and the remaining 30%, are used as model validation data. Using probit logistic regression and discriminant analysis, the effect of variables used on walnut in Baft County was calculated and then map of walnut was calculated. The results showed effect of physiographic and climatic variables on walnut. The results of validation data set in this study showed that probit logistic regression with 75% and discriminant analysis with 86% able to accurately explain the favorable areas for walnut cultivation. Suitable physiographic areas and climatic potentials for planting walnut trees are located in the central, northern, and northwestern regions of Baft area.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Habitat potential modeling
  • Geographic Information System (GIS)
  • Probit logistic regression
  • Discriminant Analysis
  • Walnut
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